Tropical Storm Erick, located about 700 kilometers off the coast of Guerrero on Tuesday morning, is expected to strengthen into a hurricane by tonight or early Wednesday, according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC).
The storm is projected to make landfall later this week as a Category 2 hurricane, prompting authorities to take early precautionary measures along Mexico’s Pacific coast.
“We are coordinating with local authorities to carry out all preventive activities to ensure the safety of the citizens of Chiapas, Oaxaca, and Guerrero,” said Laura Velázquez, head of Mexico’s National Civil Protection Agency (SNPC).
As of 9 a.m. Tuesday, Erick was moving west-northwest at approximately 15 km/h, with tropical-storm-force winds extending up to 75 kilometers from its center and maximum sustained winds of 75 km/h.
Guerrero is still reeling from Tropical Storm Dalila, which struck over the weekend, damaging infrastructure and cutting power in several areas.
Erick is expected to approach Mexico’s southern coast on Wednesday night and make landfall or pass near the shoreline by Thursday.
The NHC warns that Erick could dump 20 to 40 cm (8 to 16 inches) of rain over Oaxaca and Guerrero, with isolated areas seeing up to 51 cm (20 inches). This rainfall could trigger dangerous flooding and mudslides, particularly in mountainous areas.
Chiapas, Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco could also receive between 8 and 13 cm (3 to 5 inches) of rain, with some areas experiencing totals as high as 20 cm (8 inches).
In addition to heavy rains, swells and storm surge generated by Erick are expected to reach the southern Mexican coast within the next 24 hours, producing dangerous surf and rip currents.
The government has issued a Hurricane Warning from Punta Maldonado, Guerrero, to Puerto Ángel, Oaxaca, a 300-kilometer stretch of coastline. This means hurricane conditions are expected within 36 hours.
A Hurricane Watch is in effect from Punta Maldonado northwest to Acapulco (247 kilometers), indicating hurricane conditions are possible. A Tropical Storm Warning extends east from Puerto Ángel to Salina Cruz (190 kilometers), meaning tropical storm conditions are expected within 36 hours.
Officials warn that watches and warnings may expand westward as the storm progresses, urging residents along the southern coast to closely monitor updates and follow local advisories.