Geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Canada are reshaping travel patterns, with Mexico emerging as a top alternative for Canadian tourists. Amid growing friction sparked by U.S. President Donald Trump’s aggressive stance toward the Canadian government, more travelers from Canada are choosing Mexico over traditional U.S. destinations.
The trend is especially noticeable as Canada’s peak travel season to Mexico, typically from October to March, now appears to be extending into summer. “They’re increasing flight frequencies and redirecting routes from Los Angeles, Las Vegas, and Miami to Mexico. This is a great opportunity for Puerto Vallarta, which has the best air connectivity with Canada,” said Luis Villaseñor, director of the Puerto Vallarta Tourism Promotion Trust, during the Gala Vallarta event.
In response to declining interest in U.S. trips, at least two Canadian airlines have announced increased seat availability for flights to Mexico. Official data shows that 20.4 million Canadian tourists visited the U.S. in 2024, a figure expected to drop by about 10 percent due to strained political relations.
This shift reflects broader economic and political changes. Since Trump’s return to power, tensions within the trilateral Free Trade Agreement have escalated, leading to retaliatory tariffs and trade adjustments. While Mexico has remained cooperative, Canada has pushed back with its own countermeasures, including efforts to reduce U.S. product consumption—factors that have also influenced travel decisions.
Airlines are quickly adapting. Puerto Vallarta and Cancún, which maintain 16 and 15 direct air connections to Canadian cities respectively, are poised to absorb much of the increased demand. Puerto Vallarta, in particular, has not only strengthened its status as a top tourist destination but also hosts the largest Canadian expatriate community in Mexico, further fueling a local real estate boom.
Canada remains Mexico’s second-largest source of international visitors. In 2024, 2.6 million Canadians arrived by air, according to Mexico’s Migration Policy Unit, with 33,000 trips recorded between the two nations last year. In the competitive Mexico-Canada airline market, WestJet led with a 33 percent passenger share in January, followed by Air Canada at 23.2 percent, while Aeroméxico trailed at 3 percent.
The impact of these shifting travel trends is already clear. In January alone, over 851,000 passengers flew from Canada to Mexico—a record-breaking first month and a 21 percent increase from the previous year. Overall, flights between the two countries surpassed 5,000 during this period, up 20 percent year-over-year.
As trade and politics continue to evolve in North America, Mexico is positioning itself to capture a growing share of the Canadian travel market. With Toronto, Montreal, and Vancouver leading outbound traffic to Mexico, this realignment could mark a lasting shift in regional tourism, strengthening Mexico’s appeal amid changing geopolitical landscapes.