A recent analysis using artificial intelligence has examined the security situations in Jalisco and Guanajuato (home of expat enclave San Miguel de Allende), revealing distinct patterns of violence and criminal activity in each state. The study, which evaluated official crime statistics, highlights different security challenges facing these two major Mexican states.
Guanajuato currently leads the nation in homicide rates, accounting for 15.2% of the country’s total homicides according to the latest federal report. The state has witnessed a concerning upward trend in intentional homicides, rising from 8.3% in July 2024 to 11.6% in early 2025.
Meanwhile, Jalisco faces its own set of critical security challenges. While recording fewer homicides than Guanajuato, it still ranks among Mexico’s top five states for homicide rates. However, Jalisco’s primary security concerns center on forced disappearances and the discovery of clandestine graves. The Guadalajara Metropolitan Zone has also experienced an increase in violent robberies and kidnappings.
The analysis concludes that while both states face serious security issues, Guanajuato’s homicide statistics make it particularly concerning, while Jalisco’s challenges stem from more diverse forms of criminal activity.